THE EVENING SESSION
MONDAY 23RD OCTOBER 2023
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UK100 PREVIEW
Summary
Only 2 instances of three consecutive 50+ falls on the UK100 in the data set. Nothing appears to be gained from analysing these moves.
When we prioritise the last 2 day moves, the picture doesnt get any clearer. Easy to work with strong futures pricing either way, however currently +7pts in no-mans land, which have historically resulted in lacklustre first session moves.
SPX PREVIEW
Summary
Unfortunately LOTS of contradictory signals present leading into the European open. Would expect some intra-day moves lower consistent with 3 day price action from this morning, however some strong EOD bullish history to consider given a) tight AUS200 range Mondays (Average SPX move +13pts, 81% positive distribution, and 66% with <10pts move to low), and b) Large SPX gap up we saw this morning (Average SPX move +24pts, 77% positive distribution, some reasonable falls before reversing).
Another interesting data set to consider is when SPX gaps UP, but day move is muted like today (would normally expect large moves of 10+pts either way), high occurrence of moves sharply lower from 5pm AEST with <10pts move to high. Average move to low of 82pts, and 83% of these moves falling 70pts.
A good reminder that day trading was never meant to be easy, otherwise everyone would be doing it! We have to consider all available information and make the most informed trading decisions we can.
If I had to try and make sense of the data below, potential to trade short at European open with a known, and manageable tight stop loss is appealing, before a potential reversal at some stage later in the session.
Remember, this information can form part of your trading edge, but is useless without discipline.
Stay Sharp, Stay Profitable.
Cheers Marto
thank you for this clear and reasoned commentary of what you are considering from your data :)
makes a lot of sense..