THE EVENING SESSION

THURSDAY 26TH OCTOBER 2023

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UK100 PREVIEW

Summary

Should expect to see a first session close higher if history any guide, although the risk of an irregular move is heightened with the gap down and fall on the SPX today.

Any potential moves up can be expected to be sold off by end of session, however.

2 DAYS PREV 10/50, PREV DAY 10/50, MOVE TO OPEN -30.

SPX PREVIEW

Summary

If you followed along the lines of my update this morning, easy to get caught up in the euphoria of a 20+pts fall during daylight hours. However, remember not to over-extend if trading leveraged positions. Position sizing is paramount.

Steel-manning my theory from this morning: There is a high probability we will get some kind of rally back (potentially significant) before any falls continue (if these are to occur). Large 20+ falls during our session actually historically reduce the probability of 100+ falls, as you can see in the 2nd data set, below.

PREV DAY -40, GAP >-5, 8AM CANDLE <0

PREV DAY < -40, 8AM -5PM MOVE < -15

Any rallies from here should bottom by 8pm AEST, while any further falls could rally later into the evening before falling.

Consider the move from open to day low in the bottom data set. We have moved ~22pts from open to day low at this point, so the data suggests that we will go lower at some stage.

Trade well.

Remember, this information can form part of your trading edge, but is useless without discipline.

Stay Sharp, Stay Profitable.

Cheers Marto