MORNING SESSION

MONDAY 23rd OCTOBER 2023

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Friday 20th October 2023 Data Review

XJO Change: -69pts

AUS200 Futures Day Change: -26pts

Current AUS 200 Overnight Futures Pricing: -70pts

S&P500 Change: -48pts

UK100 Change: -98pts

AUS200 RECAP

Per the Friday stack, as soon as 5pts move lower was broken, any hope of a bounce was likely over. 30pts to low not as exciting as hoped by still provided plenty of opportunity for profit.

UK100 OVERNIGHT RECAP

2nd lowest close in first session after 2 days of falls. Brief retracement early before heading lower.

SPX OVERNIGHT RECAP

Continues the run of lower move Friday’s, absent any data releases. High of evening found early, as per past larger falls.

AUS200 MORNING OUTLOOK - MONDAY 23RD OCTOBER

HISTORICAL PARAMETRES

Average Expected XJO Change: -73pts

Average Expected Futures Change: +9pts

Average Expected AUS200 Change 10am-4pm: +4pts

Average Expected Range: 74pts

Summary

Falls on the XJO followed by ANOTHER large fall in overnight futures historically are reasonably evenly distributed. However arranged by size of move 2 days prior, we can see that when we have 2 days of falls such as currently, selling is usually exhausted (potentially after early large falls), and subsequently result in the largest rallies in the data set.

PREV XJO -50, O/N MOVE -50. SORT BY 2 DAY PRIOR XJO

Also not that 4/5 largest overnight falls FOLLOWING todays setup have occurred on Monday’s, with the largest monday overnight move up being 3pts. Potentially a high probability short setup at Monday close.

PREV XJO -50, O/N MOVE -50. SORT BY DAY

SPX500 3 DAY PRICE ACTION PARAMETRES

Summary

Consistent 3 days of falls like we’ve now had are unusual, and can expected a wild night of price discovery. If we don’t gap up and run as the large rally below played out, short plays most likely, with minimum moves to day low of 28pts, average 77pts hihgly attractive Risk / Reward wise.

Note that a flat, or upward move on the SPX tonight after the falls we’ve had has historically been a bull trap, and resulted in 100+ falls, the day following.

More this evening.

Remember, this information can form part of your trading edge, but is useless without discipline.

Stay Sharp, Stay Profitable.

Marto

DISCLAIMER: All content and information shared here is general in nature. I am NOT a licensed financial advisor and do not hold an AFSL. Historical trends do NOT guarantee the direction of future moves and should not be used as a sole basis for trading.