MORNING SESSION
TUESDAY 31ST OCTOBER 2023
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Monday 30th October 2023 Data Review
XJO Change: -59pts
AUS200 Futures Day Change: +10pts
Current AUS 200 Overnight Futures Pricing: +29pts
S&P500 Change: +49pts
UK100 Change: +36pts
AUS200 RECAP
Open gap UP significantly increased likelihood of a higher finish, which we got after an early panic.
30pts selloff to low. Never the worst idea from a R/R perspective to think about longs from 10:45am after a first-hour selloff with stops under first-hour lows (particularly with a bullish early sign eg gap up). If the market bottoms during this hour, average 40pts move to day close in these scenarios. Known downside under lows.
Good example of why you should consider both price and time in your trading. Top at 12pm AEST at a nice round number of 6800, followed by a 26pts selloff from exactly 1:30pm AEST.
UK100 OVERNIGHT RECAP
Played the percentages with potentially significant targets and lost on this one. Exhuberance into open should have been a tell.
SPX OVERNIGHT RECAP
Didnt get the pullback we would expect when we gap up on open, but higher finish never really in doubt. Sharp selloff post RTH open presented good opportunity to get set if not already.
AUS200 MORNING OUTLOOK - MONDAY 30TH OCTOBER
HISTORICAL PARAMETRES
Average Expected XJO Change: +18pts
Average Expected Futures Change: -2pts
Average Expected AUS200 Change 10am-4pm: -8pts
Average Expected Range: 47pts
Summary
Nothing overly compelling at this point on the helicopter view. 70% probability we top first hour.
End of month moves on the AUS200 generally tough going. More worthwhile futures falls then rallies. Also note ~80% of positive futures finishes have some positive momentum (+XJO) prior day. Yesterday XJO down ~54pts.
SPX500 3 DAY PRICE ACTION PARAMETRES
Summary
Wide range of outcomes, but decent range expected. End of month to also play a part in increasing volatility.
Days following a gap up and rally suggest we should also see some good moves tonight, with some potentially large moves to the downside possible.
More this evening.
Remember, this information can form part of your trading edge, but is useless without discipline.
Stay Sharp, Stay Profitable.
Marto
DISCLAIMER: All content and information shared here is general in nature. I am NOT a licensed financial advisor and do not hold an AFSL. Historical trends do NOT guarantee the direction of future moves and should not be used as a sole basis for trading.