MORNING SESSION
THURSDAY 26TH OCTOBER 2023
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Wednesday 25th October 2023 Data Review
XJO Change: -7pts
AUS200 Futures Day Change: -30pts
Current AUS 200 Overnight Futures Pricing: -19
S&P500 Change: -57pts
UK100 Change: +24pts
AUS200 RECAP
Finally got a decent intra-day move on the XJO. Higher than expected CPI print meant we went against the grain of the majority of past moves, and dropped 30+pts on the release.
On personal review, a couple of red flags for me, most notably a lower first-hour move should have prompted some reduction in long positions / short hedging. Stopped out and switched to short on the dump and recovered 20pts (awaiting new post 12pm low, as per past CPI falls).
UK100 OVERNIGHT RECAP
Sometimes the most profitable thing you can do is to say, ‘I don’t know’ and stay out of it. True last night, first session drift.
SPX OVERNIGHT RECAP
Per yesterdays 3 day price action summary, 8am-5pm move showed us the likely direction. Aussie CPI as a predictor also continues, with 100% of AUS200 downward moves translating into SPX falls, with a very attractive risk management framework (80% < 5pts to day high, 100% <15pts to day high). 60pts move from CPI announcement.
AUS200 MORNING OUTLOOK - THURSDAY 26TH OCTOBER
HISTORICAL PARAMETRES
Average Expected XJO Change: -87pts
Average Expected Futures Change: -49pts
Average Expected AUS200 Change 10am-4pm: -35pts
Average Expected Range: 82pts
Summary
Despite a large SPX fall last night, AUS200 down a modest 19pts. Previous occurrences of this kind of divergence give more ammunition if your bias is short.
SPX gap down on open this morning looks to confirm short bias. Considering this gap following overnight falls, we have a large skew to the downside.
Looking at end of day XJO changes, current out of market trading is pricing open at ~-38pts, which given past occurrences suggest small probability of MAX ~40pts upside today, and a higher probability of significantly more downside.
Any bounces may provide good opportunities to enter high probability short positions.
SPX500 3 DAY PRICE ACTION PARAMETRES
Summary
Don’t see this type of skew often. Downside high probability. Open gap compounds this.
More this evening.
Remember, this information can form part of your trading edge, but is useless without discipline.
Stay Sharp, Stay Profitable.
Marto
DISCLAIMER: All content and information shared here is general in nature. I am NOT a licensed financial advisor and do not hold an AFSL. Historical trends do NOT guarantee the direction of future moves and should not be used as a sole basis for trading.
good get , thanking you :)
Aussie CPI as a predictor also continues, with 100% of AUS200 downward moves translating into SPX falls