MORNING SESSION
WEDNESDAY 25TH OCTOBER 2023
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Tuesday 24th October 2023 Data Review
XJO Change: +15pts
AUS200 Futures Day Change: +30pts
Current AUS 200 Overnight Futures Pricing: +23
S&P500 Change: +23pts
UK100 Change: +15pts
AUS200 RECAP
I wrote yesterday; “If i had to pick a theme for the last week ON AUS200 it would be - ‘Take profit when you can’, with the last 10 days open / close moves being 12, 0, 11, -5, -14, -4, -17, -10, -4.” Yesterday turned out +6pts.
This was again the best strategy, with a gap up and sharp rally in premarket and into 11am again giving plenty of opportunity for profit, before falling back.
May sound obvious, but a reminder that large first hour rallies are hugely bullish for EOD closes. At 13pts below open at 12pm AEST yesterday, this would have been the equal 3rd lowest close following a 20pts first hour move across the past 84 occurrences. Possible but not probable it was going to close there.
UK100 OVERNIGHT RECAP
Sharp selloff from open through 5:30pm low killed any chance of a rally, however as suggested yesterday price level of 20pts below previous close was a reliable lower bound for expected closes, with 93% of these setups closing above this level.
Anything below that level (7355) represented a compelling LONG into the close of first session. Market rallied 50pts from lows into first session close.
SPX OVERNIGHT RECAP
Per last night’s Stack, 3 Day Price Action remains undefeated with this setup at 100% long moves, with 20pts stop below 5pm holding.
AUS200 MORNING OUTLOOK - WEDNESDAY 25TH OCTOBER
HISTORICAL PARAMETRES
Average Expected XJO Change: +12pts
Average Expected Futures Change: +21pts
Average Expected AUS200 Change 10am-4pm: +18pts
Average Expected Range: 61pts
Summary
CPI today. Hopefully a RTH data release will give us a bit more of an EOD move than we’ve had recently.
Historically overwhelmingly bullish. 80% positive first hour moves. If Long, stops below first hour low / 15pts below open should ensure you capture any big moves to the upside. Any break of this, and probability would switch to being short for the afternoon.
SPX500 3 DAY PRICE ACTION PARAMETRES
Summary
Potential for further follow through of last nights rally, however will be watching todays move in futures to point us in right direction.
More this evening.
Remember, this information can form part of your trading edge, but is useless without discipline.
Stay Sharp, Stay Profitable.
Marto
DISCLAIMER: All content and information shared here is general in nature. I am NOT a licensed financial advisor and do not hold an AFSL. Historical trends do NOT guarantee the direction of future moves and should not be used as a sole basis for trading.