MORNING SESSION
WEDNESDAY 1ST NOVEMBER 2023
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Monday 31th October 2023 Data Review
XJO Change: -1pts
AUS200 Futures Day Change: -30pts
Current AUS 200 Overnight Futures Pricing: +39pts
S&P500 Change: +27pts
UK100 Change: -5pts
AUS200 RECAP
Bias was to the downside in yesterday morning’s stack, particularly after the first hour, and we saw that play out yesterday. Run up 10am-11am was well within historical parameters. ~50pts fall from high to lows.
UK100 OVERNIGHT RECAP
At lower end of expected outcomes, and so could expect some kind of re-pricing higher. Rallied ~50pts and closed up 33pts from open.
SPX OVERNIGHT RECAP
Some strongly conflicting data points meant we were in for a push and pull night. A negative lead into Euro open meant that historically any hope of rally was off the table, but similarly the 10+pts rally (following yesterdays rally) from Euro open meant any chance of a fall was off the table as well (see below historical).
AUS200 MORNING OUTLOOK - WEDNESDAY 1ST NOVEMBER
HISTORICAL PARAMETRES
Average Expected XJO Change: +37pts
Average Expected Futures Change: 6pts
Average Expected AUS200 Change 10am-4pm: 0pts
Average Expected Range: 45pts
Summary
Nothing overly compelling at this point on the helicopter view. End of day falls have historically finished near lows, so could expect a slow drift lower, while would suggest any meaningful rallies would need to move with strength from open.
Late sell-off into close yesterday has me interested, but most likely outcome is we finish somewhere in between.
Also Start of Month. Again, 5/6 top rallies had < 6pts to lows. Would be cautious playing long with any large gaps UP on open.
SPX500 3 DAY PRICE ACTION PARAMETRES
Summary
3 Day Price action suggests passive move higher most likely move today.
Also FOMC TONIGHT - Historically any negative lead into Euro open would disqualify any hope of a meaningful rally. ~35pts to day low absolute line in sand for bulls. An average of >20pts intra day point to the upside, than downside historically.
More this evening.
Remember, this information can form part of your trading edge, but is useless without discipline.
Stay Sharp, Stay Profitable.
Marto
DISCLAIMER: All content and information shared here is general in nature. I am NOT a licensed financial advisor and do not hold an AFSL. Historical trends do NOT guarantee the direction of future moves and should not be used as a sole basis for trading.